New York College Learning Skills Association

RTDE Issue Contents

Research and Teaching
in Developmental Education

Volume 22, Issue 2, Spring 2006

Predicting the First-Year Performance of Developmental Education Students
By Randy Moore

Abstract

Most developmental education students who earn GPA's less than 2.0 during
their first semester at the University of Minnesota also post GPA's less than 2.0 during their second semester, and therefore end their first year of college with GPA's less than 2.0. First-semester GPA's are strongly correlated with second-semester GPA's (r = 0.59) and with first-year GPA's (r = 0.85). Although virtually all students who earn second-semester GPA's above 2.0 also post first-year GPA's above 2.0, almost two-thirds of students who post GPA's less than 2.0 during their second semester end their first year with GPA's less than 2.0. Historically, these students (i.e., those having first-year GPA's less than 2.0) have approximately a 1% chance of graduating from the university. These results emphasize the importance of a strong first-year for the long-term academic success of developmental education students. ACT Aptitude Ratings are poor predictors of whether developmental education students earn grade-point-averages (GPA's) above or below 2.0 during their first or second semester at college.